Weekly Sectoral Performance
> JCI bounced back to almost Rp6.5k, +1.8%. We start seeing net foreign inflows of Rp280bn, mainly towards the big banks. Our strategist Jovent made a timely call last Friday that the market may have reached the bottom / close to the bottom. We are turning bullish on the banks due to: (1) More clarity on Danantara as it has officially announced the team; (2) SOE banks have done their EGMS and will distribute FY24 dividend at 8-9% yield; (3) lastly, we expect the big banks results will gradually improve in Feb and Mar 2025.
> In terms of sector, Construction (+26.4%), Cement (+17.5%), and Banks (+6.1%), were the most outperforming sectors this week. While, Property (-3.6%), Consumer (-2.8%), and Tower (-2.7%) were the most underperforming sectors.
> USDIDR hitting record-high since Asian Financial Crisis on Tuesday and reached Rp16,640, in the same time DXY also up to 104.5 (+1.1%).
Weekly Recap:
1. All eyes on banks' EGMS this week: Huge dividends & management changes
> SOE banks -

BBRI

,

BMRI

, and

BBNI

- has completed their respective AGMs this week. Dividend payouts are one of the key highlights; with

BMRI

's and

BBNI

's yield reaching c.10% and c.9% on the day of announcement;

BBRI

's final dividend at c.6% yield, sending share price skyrocketing this week. New management line-up also seems to be well-perceived as it was generally filled by seasoned bankers. Darmawan Junaidi stays as

BMRI

's CEO,

BRIS

' ex-CEO Heri Gunardi is newly-appointed as

BBRI

's CEO, while

BBNI

's Vice CEO Putrama Wahju Setyawan stepped up as CEO.
2. Macro 1H25F outlook: weaker-than-expected Eid festivity
> We revised down GDP growth to c.5.0% yoy in 1H25 (from c.+5.1% yoy) due to weaker Eid festivity (-24.3% decline of homecoming travellers). We see private investment to be the main driver of GDP growth in 1H25 at c.+5.3%, indicated by improving PMI at 53.6 in Feb25. We see BI rate to stay at 5.75% in 1H25, mainly to maintain Rupiah volatility. Rupiah has declined by -2.6% YTD despite lower DXY of -4.7% YTD.
3. Telcos Mar25 survey: 1Q25F average yield still declining but still within expectation
> In Mar25, major brands retain stable yield offering with adjustments in the smaller brands. Positively,

ISAT

and

EXCL

raised starter pack prices. Mobile apps 1Q25 average yield offering is still on declining trend but still within our expectation. FTTH average yield offering were mostly declined in 1Q25, except for First Media, XLSatu, and MyRepublic. Retain our Neutral call.
4. Grab is seeking up to US$2bn bridge-loan
> Grab is seeking up to US$2bn bridge-loan, according to the news from Bloomberg with bond and equity take-out being considered after obtaining the bridge loan. We think this is a positive as this meant that the deal is indeed progressing. Note that

GOTO

currently has US$1.3-1.4bn in cash & cash equivalent, while Grab currently has US$5.8bn in net cash liquidity.
5. FY24 Results Recap
> Above -

ICBP

,

INDF

,

MIKA

,

NCKL

,

RALS

> In-line -

PGEO

,

TOWR

> Below -

AMRT

,

MAPI

,

MAPA

,

PGAS

,

HEAL

,

SILO

,

HMSP

Sumber : IPS