Sector Update / Banks / Click here for full PDF version
Author: Jovent Muliadi ;Axel Azriel
- Aggregate big 4 bank-only profit of Rp29.2tr in 2M26 (+10% yoy) came above vs. consensus's 5%. led the PPOP growth at +14% yoy.
- Big 4 bank-only NIM fell by -22bp yoy to 5.0% on lower asset yield (-45bp yoy), though this was partly offset by CoF (-28bp yoy).
- Maintain OW on the back of potential beat in earnings and attractive valuation. and remains our top pick.
2M26 bank-only results: robust earnings; and results were encouraging
Aggregate big 4 bank-only earnings grew +10% yoy to Rp29.2tr in 2M26, above our/cons FY26F consol growth estimates of +6%/5%. However, in terms of PPOP , was the strongest at +14% yoy, followed by (+10% yoy). NIM fell -22bp yoy to 5.0% from lower asset yield (-45bp yoy) which offset CoF improvement of -28bp yoy. Loan grew 13% yoy vs. deposit of +17% yoy, bringing LDR lower to 86% vs. 89% in 2M25.
: slightly below from soft NII
bank-only net profit of Rp9.2tr in 2M26 (+3% yoy/-15% mom) was below our/cons FY26F consol growth estimates of 6/7%. PPOP was soft (+1% yoy) due to flat NII. Non-II was robust at +15% yoy. Provision fell -19% yoy (-13% mom), translating to lower CoC of 0.3% (-11bp yoy/-2bp mom) and slightly behind guidance of 40-50bp. NIM fell to 5.5% (-38bp yoy) amid lower asset yield (-38bp yoy) while CoF stood flat. Loan grew +6% yoy while deposits rose +10% yoy, translating to lower LDR of 78% vs. 81% in 2M25.
: CoC continues to normalize while NIM improves on lower CoF
bank-only net profit of Rp7.7tr in 2M26 (+17% yoy/+8% mom) was optically above our/cons FY26F consol earnings growth estimates of 5/6% but this is due to low base effect in 2M25 (-18% yoy). PPOP fell by -2% yoy on weak non-II (-17% yoy) offsetting decent NII (+5% yoy). Provision fell -16% yoy (-17% mom), translating to lower CoC of 3.5% (-99bp yoy/-34bp mom), still above guidance of 2.9-3.2%. NIM inched up +6bp yoy to 6.5% from lower CoF (-59bp yoy) which offset asset yield decline (-45bp yoy). Loan grew +10% yoy vs. deposit of +9% yoy, bringing LDR to 89% vs. 88% in 2M25.
: beat from robust PPOP
posted bank-only net profit of Rp8.9tr in 2M26 (+17% yoy/-10% mom), above our/cons FY26F consol growth estimates of +7/1%. PPOP grew +10% yoy from solid NII/non-II (+9% yoy) while opex was modest at +7% yoy. Provision fell -26% yoy but rose +45% mom, bringing CoC to 0.5% (-27bp yoy/+8bp mom), behind guidance of 0.6-0.8%. NIM fell -24bp yoy to 4.2% from lower asset yield (-49bp yoy) though CoF already improved -31bp yoy. Both loan and deposit grew by +16% yoy, translating to stable LDR of 92%.
: strongest PPOP growth from robust NII
booked bank-only net profit of Rp3.4tr in 2M26 (+4% yoy/+3% mom), slightly below our/cons FY26F consol growth estimates of 6/8%; however PPOP was very strong at +14% yoy amid strong NII (+14% yoy). Provision rose +52% yoy, translating to higher CoC of 1.1% (+27bp yoy/-5bp mom), in-line with guidance of 1-1.2%. NIM fell -11bp yoy to 3.6% from lower asset yield (-20bp yoy). Loan grew +19% yoy while deposit rose higher at +41% yoy, bringing LDR lower to 81% vs. 96% in 2M25.
Sumber : IPS